The week of November 17-23 brings a concentrated wave of high-impact economic data releases that could significantly influence currency markets. Traders should prepare for heightened volatility as central banks reveal their policy deliberations, inflation indicators paint a picture of price pressures across major economies, and business sentiment surveys offer early signals of economic momentum heading into year-end.
This week's calendar is particularly notable for its focus on inflation metrics from Canada and the UK, the Federal Reserve's latest policy discussions, and a comprehensive sweep of purchasing managers' indices across Europe and North America. Each of these releases carries the potential to shift currency valuations as markets recalibrate their expectations for interest rates and economic growth.
Whether you're trading the Canadian dollar, British pound, euro, or US dollar, understanding these events and their potential market implications will be essential for navigating what promises to be a data-intensive week.
Monday, November 17, 2025
Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) – 13:30 UTC
Currency Impact: CAD
Canada's core inflation measure strips away the noise by excluding eight volatile components including fruits, vegetables, gasoline, and mortgage interest. This gives the Bank of Canada—and traders—a clearer view of underlying price pressures in the economy. The year-over-year comparison reveals whether inflation is trending toward or away from the BoC's target range. Higher-than-expected core inflation may strengthens the Canadian dollar as it increases the likelihood of tighter monetary policy, while softer readings could weigh on the Loonie by reducing rate hike expectations.
Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) – 13:30 UTC
Currency Impact: CAD
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), released monthly by Statistics Canada, represents changes in prices for Canadian consumers by comparing the cost of a fixed basket of goods and services. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. A high reading could be seen as bullish for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), while a low reading could be seen as bearish.
Tuesday, November 18, 2025
Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes – 00:30 UTC
Currency Impact: AUD
Published two weeks after each rate decision, the RBA minutes provide a detailed window into the central bank's policy debates and economic assessment. These documents reveal not just what the RBA decided, but why—including dissenting views and the nuances of the discussion. Markets scrutinise the language for signals of future policy direction: hawkish commentary about inflation risks could boosts the Australian dollar by suggesting rates may rise, while dovish concerns about growth could pressure the currency. The minutes also record individual votes, offering insight into how unified or divided the board may be on the path forward.
Wednesday, November 19, 2025
UK Consumer Price Index (MoM) – 07:00 UTC
Currency Impact: GBP
Britain's month-over-month inflation reading captures the immediate price changes consumers are experiencing, providing a real-time snapshot of inflationary momentum. This indicator helps traders gauge whether price pressures are accelerating or cooling between consecutive months. As the official measure used in the UK government's inflation target, CPI movements heavily influence Bank of England policy expectations. A rising monthly figure may support sterling by suggesting persistent inflation may require higher interest rates, while declining readings could weaken the pound as they reduce the urgency for tight monetary policy.
UK Consumer Price Index (YoY) – 07:00 UTC
Currency Impact: GBP
The year-over-year comparison provides crucial context for assessing whether inflation is moving closer to or further from the Bank of England's target. This longer-term view smooths out monthly volatility and reveals the underlying inflation trend. Markets pay close attention to how the annual rate compares to the BoE's 2% target, as persistent deviations in either direction influence the central bank's rate decisions. Sterling may gain ground when annual inflation runs hot, as this reinforces expectations for higher interest rates to cool price pressures while weaker inflation data may cause the sterling to weaken.
UK Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) – 07:00 UTC
Currency Impact: GBP
By excluding the unpredictable swings in food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco prices, core CPI reveals the more stable, underlying inflation that reflects genuine shifts in purchasing power and demand. This measure is particularly valuable for policymakers trying to distinguish between temporary price shocks and persistent inflationary trends. The Bank of England closely monitors core inflation when setting monetary policy, making this a key indicator for currency traders. Strong core inflation readings could bolster the pound by signalling that price pressures are broad-based and may require sustained policy tightening and weak inflation readings could weaken the sterling.
Federal Reserve FOMC Minutes – 19:00 UTC
Currency Impact: USD
The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes offer an unparalleled look behind the curtain of US monetary policy deliberations. Released three weeks after each FOMC meeting, these documents detail the committee's economic assessment, policy debate, and forward-looking concerns. Traders dissect the language for clues about the Fed's future rate trajectory, looking for shifts in the balance between inflation-fighting and growth concerns. Hawkish minutes that emphasise persistent inflation risks could strengthen the dollar, while dovish tones highlighting economic vulnerabilities could weaken it. The minutes also reveal any dissents and the range of views among policymakers, providing insight into how entrenched the current policy stance may be.
Friday, November 21, 2025
UK Retail Sales (MoM) – 07:00 UTC
Currency Impact: GBP
The Retail Sales data, released monthly by the Office for National Statistics, measures the volume of sales of goods by retailers in Great Britain directly to end customers. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales, with the MoM reading comparing sales volumes in the reference month with the previous month. A high reading could be seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Germany HCOB Composite PMI – 08:30 UTC
Currency Impact: EUR
This forward-looking indicator combines both manufacturing and services activity in Europe's economic powerhouse, offering a comprehensive gauge of German private sector health. Because the index is based on surveys of business executives about current conditions compared to the previous month, it often signals economic shifts before they appear in official GDP data. The critical 50-point threshold acts as an expansion-contraction dividing line: readings above suggest growing business activity and could support the euro, while readings below indicate shrinking activity and could pressure the currency. Germany's outsised role in the eurozone makes this particularly influential for euro traders.
Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI – 08:30 UTC
Currency Impact: EUR
As Europe's industrial backbone, German manufacturing performance serves as a bellwether for the broader eurozone's factory sector. This survey-based index captures real-time sentiment from manufacturing executives about production, new orders, employment, and delivery times. The data's forward-looking nature makes it valuable for anticipating turns in the economic cycle. Strong manufacturing readings above 50 reinforce confidence in German industrial strength and could support the euro, while weak readings below 50 raise concerns about economic momentum and could weigh on the currency. Given Germany's export-oriented economy, this indicator also reflects global demand conditions.
Germany HCOB Services PMI – 08:30 UTC
Currency Impact: EUR
Germany's services sector encompasses everything from retail and hospitality to financial services and business consulting. This PMI surveys executives across these industries to assess activity levels, new business, and employment trends. While manufacturing often grabs headlines, services represent the largest portion of advanced economies, making this an important indicator of overall economic health. Readings above 50 suggest the services economy is expanding and could benefit the euro, while readings below 50 could indicate contraction and could pressure the currency. The services PMI is particularly sensitive to consumer confidence and spending patterns.
Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI – 09:00 UTC
Currency Impact: EUR
This aggregate measure combines manufacturing and services data across all eurozone member countries, providing the most comprehensive real-time assessment of the bloc's economic momentum. The composite nature makes it especially valuable because it captures the full spectrum of private sector activity across Europe's diverse economies. Markets watch this closely as a predictor of GDP growth or contraction. Strong composite readings above 50 could signal broad-based expansion and could strengthen the euro by suggesting resilient economic conditions, while weak readings below 50 could indicate widespread contraction and could trigger currency weakness.
Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI – 09:00 UTC
Currency Impact: EUR
The eurozone manufacturing index aggregates factory activity across all member states, providing a comprehensive view of industrial conditions across the monetary union. This indicator is particularly important given Europe's strong manufacturing tradition and its role in global supply chains. The PMI methodology surveys purchasing managers about production volumes, new orders, inventory levels, and supplier deliveries—all leading indicators of economic direction. Readings above 50 could suggest factory expansion and could support the euro, while readings below 50 could indicate manufacturing contraction and could weaken the currency. Persistent weakness in this measure could signals broader economic challenges for the eurozone.
Eurozone HCOB Services PMI – 09:00 UTC
Currency Impact: EUR
Given that services dominate modern European economies, this indicator provides critical insight into the eurozone's economic health. The index surveys executives across diverse service industries including tourism, retail, transportation, and professional services. Because services activity is closely tied to consumer spending and business investment, this PMI offers a window into domestic demand conditions across Europe. Strong readings above 50 could indicate expanding services activity and could bolster the euro, while readings below 50 could suggest contraction and could pressure the currency. This measure is particularly sensitive to consumer confidence and employment trends.
UK S&P Global Composite PMI – 09:30 UTC
Currency Impact: GBP
Britain's composite business activity index combines manufacturing and services surveys to deliver a comprehensive snapshot of the UK private sector. As a forward-looking indicator derived from real-time executive surveys, it often predicts economic turns before official statistics confirm them. The 50-point threshold marks the expansion-contraction boundary. Readings above suggest growing business confidence and activity, which could support sterling, while readings below could indicate deteriorating conditions and could weaken the pound. This indicator is especially closely watched given the UK's service-oriented economy and its importance for Bank of England policy considerations.
UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI – 09:30 UTC
Currency Impact: GBP
This survey of UK factory executives captures the pulse of British manufacturing through questions about output, new orders, employment, and supply chain conditions. While manufacturing represents a smaller portion of the UK economy than services, it remains an important sector for exports and capital investment. The PMI's forward-looking nature makes it valuable for anticipating economic momentum shifts. Readings above 50 could indicate expanding factory activity and which could support the pound, while readings below 50 could suggest contraction and could weigh on sterling. The indicator also provides clues about inflation pressures through its price sub-indices.
UK S&P Global Services PMI – 09:30 UTC
Currency Impact: GBP
As services comprise roughly 80% of the UK economy, this indicator carries enormous weight for assessing overall economic conditions. The survey covers diverse sectors from financial services and hospitality to healthcare and professional services. Business executives report on activity levels, new business volumes, and employment—all critical for understanding economic momentum and labour market strength. Readings above 50 could signal services expansion and could boost sterling by suggesting robust domestic demand, while readings below 50 could indicate contraction and could pressure the pound. The Bank of England monitors this closely when assessing inflationary pressures and growth risks.
Swiss National Bank Chairman Speech – 12:40 UTC
Currency Impact: CHF
SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel's public remarks carry significant weight for Swiss franc traders. As head of one of the world's most interventionist central banks, his comments on inflation, the franc's exchange rate, and monetary policy direction can trigger immediate market reactions. Schlegel assumed the chairmanship in October 2024 and brings extensive experience from various positions within the SNB. His speeches often address Switzerland's unique challenges, including managing the safe-haven franc's strength and its impact on export competitiveness. Hawkish commentary about inflation or hints at policy tightening could strengthen the franc, while dovish remarks or concerns about currency overvaluation could weaken it.
US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI – 14:45 UTC
Currency Impact: USD
This real-time gauge of American factory activity surveys purchasing managers about production, new orders, employment, and delivery times. While the US economy is predominantly service-based, manufacturing remains crucial for industrial production, business investment, and exports. The PMI's survey methodology makes it a leading indicator that often signals economic shifts before official data confirms them. Readings above 50 suggest manufacturing expansion and could support the dollar by indicating economic resilience, while readings below 50 points to factory contraction and could weaken the currency. The indicator also provides valuable insights into supply chain conditions and price pressures.
US S&P Global Services PMI – 14:45 UTC
Currency Impact: USD
Given that services dominate the US economy, this indicator is perhaps the most important real-time measure of American economic health. The survey captures sentiment from executives across financial services, hospitality, healthcare, technology, and countless other service industries. Because services activity closely tracks consumer spending and business confidence, this PMI offers critical insight into domestic demand. Readings above 50 could indicate services expansion and could strengthen the dollar by suggesting robust economic conditions, while readings below 50 could signal contraction and could pressure the currency. The Federal Reserve watches this closely when assessing both growth prospects and inflation risks.
Trading Week Summary
The November 17-23 period presents a particularly dense calendar that requires careful attention to timing and interrelationships between releases. The week essentially splits into three acts: Monday's Canadian inflation focus, midweek central bank insights from Australia and the US, and Friday's comprehensive PMI sweep alongside UK retail sales.
Staying on top of these key events and understanding their potential impact can help you anticipate market volatility and make more confident trading decisions.
For a full list of what’s ahead, check out our market calendar and stay prepared for the week’s opportunities.
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