Markets oscillated between tariff‑driven risk aversion and pre‑FOMC positioning as President Trump's Greenland‑related tariff threats first rattled sentiment, then partially eased. A strong run of US data (Q3 GDP revised up to 4.4%, jobless claims lower than expected) reinforced confidence in US growth, whilst investors eyed the upcoming Fed meeting for clarity on the 2026 rate path. Safe‑haven flows surged mid‑week, then receded when tariff headlines softened and the Supreme Court left Trump's tariff powers intact.
FX Market Reactions
- US Dollar: The greenback posted its steepest weekly decline since May, as tariff uncertainty and geopolitical noise sent traders into safe‑haven currencies and away from the greenback. Late‑week rebound attempts failed to reverse the damage, with DXY finishing lower despite a Supreme Court ruling that stabilised the tariff narrative.
- Swiss Franc: The CHF surged as flows moved into risk‑off, with EUR/CHF falling sharply and USD/CHF hitting multi‑week lows.
- Commodity Currencies: AUD and NZD bounced back as the dollar weakened and tariff anxiety eased, though both remained sensitive to global growth signals.
- Yen: The JPY underperformed most majors despite safe‑haven demand, as markets continued to unwind carry trades and question Bank of Japan rate paths in a lower‑growth scenario.
- Euro: The EUR rallied modestly as the dollar sold off, supported by safer geopolitical sentiment and growing expectations for ECB caution on rate cuts.
Commodities Market Reactions
- Gold & Silver: Precious metals spiked sharply on tariff and geopolitical fears, with gold testing fresh all‑time highs above USD 2,900/oz and silver surging past USD 36/oz, then consolidating as risk sentiment stabilised later in the week.
- Oil: Crude rallied briefly on geopolitical concerns, then eased as markets assessed lower near‑term demand risks; WTI fluctuated in a wide range but finished modestly lower on the week.
- Copper & Industrial Metals: Base metals weakened alongside the tariff‑driven risk‑off, with copper falling from recent record highs as traders feared slower global demand and potential US trade friction.
- Agriculture: Soft commodities lagged as reduced tariff urgency eased export concerns, though weather and supply dynamics kept some upside intact.
Indices Market Reactions
- US Equities: The S&P 500 retreated modestly on tariff headlines (down 0.4% on the week) despite strong GDP data, whilst the Dow Jones and Nasdaq Composite also pulled back as traders locked in January gains and braced for the Fed.
- European Indices: Indices were mixed; the tariff fears initially helped defensive stocks, but the dollar weakness and softer sentiment sapped momentum from exporters and cyclicals.
- Asia‑Pacific: Japanese and Asian indices were choppy, with Japan's Nikkei weaker as yen weakness offset corporate earnings support, whilst China and Hong Kong remained under pressure from deflation fears and weak PMI data.
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