Markets in Motion: 25 November – 1 December 2025

What Drove the Markets 

Markets rallied on growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December, with futures markets pricing in a near-90% probability following weaker-than-expected US data on retail sales, producer prices, and consumer confidence. 

Meanwhile, global growth concerns intensified as China's manufacturing and services PMI figures fell back into contraction territory. Investors positioned themselves ahead of critical upcoming releases, including US core PCE inflation data, eurozone CPI figures, and the latest PMI readings. 

Market Reactions – FX Market Major Changes 

The US dollar eased about 0.5% over the week as traders increased bets on a December Fed cut and several more in 2026, though the greenback remained relatively firm overall.  

EUR/USD held in a broad 1.1465–1.1660 range and finished near 1.16, reflecting a softer dollar but capped by weak European data and lingering ECB caution.  

The yen firmed modestly as USD/JPY slipped to a two‑week low around 155.5, helped by lower US yields and focus on upcoming Bank of Japan guidance, while broader Asia FX traded mixed.  

Market Reactions – Commodities Market Major Changes 

Gold rebounded, climbing back above USD 4,200/oz, while silver jumped roughly 11% on the week to a fresh record around USD 56.5 as lower yields, rising Fed‑cut odds, and safe‑haven demand supported precious metals.  

Industrial metals stayed in focus, with copper on the London Metal Exchange hitting a new record near USD 11,300/t on mounting fears of a tightening global supply backdrop and strong investor interest in hard assets.  

Broader commodity benchmarks such as the GSCI Commodity Index rose slightly but remained below recent highs, as energy remained subdued despite metals strength.  

Market Reactions – Indices Market Major Changes 

US equities rallied, with the Nasdaq 100 up nearly 5% as US tech and AI names surged on Fed‑cut hopes and resilient earnings, and the index reclaimed its 50‑day moving average. Broader Wall Street finished November higher, even as some sectors lagged on valuation concerns and slower macro momentum.  

European indices edged up, supported by rate‑cut expectations and lower yields, while Asian markets were mixed: Chinese and Hong Kong equities struggled with weak PMIs, but selective strength appeared in Japan and parts of ASEAN. 

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