Markets wrap: 30th December 2025 to 05th January 2026

The final days of 2025 and the first sessions of 2026 were dominated by thin holiday liquidity, lingering debate over the Federal Reserve’s 2026 rate path, and a sharp reassessment of precious metals after their year‑end spike. Traders also digested very weak US manufacturing data (ISM at 47.9, a tenth consecutive month of contraction) and strong weekly jobless claims, which together kept the “slower growth but still‑hawkish Fed” narrative alive.  

FX Market Major Changes

• The US dollar was the strongest major currency on the week, with the US Dollar Index closing near the top of its range as hawkish FOMC minutes reduced near‑term rate‑cut expectations.  
• Most major FX pairs stayed unusually quiet: fewer than 5% of crosses moved more than 1%, consistent with a calm year‑turn environment.  
• The New Zealand dollar underperformed, while the yen was relatively resilient thanks to renewed speculation about further Bank of Japan tightening. 

Commodities Market Major Changes 

• Gold and silver saw a sharp reversal after setting fresh record highs over the Christmas period; as London and New York traders returned, gold fell by up to 5% from peak levels and silver slumped almost 16% in one of the largest single‑day drops on record, as speculative longs were unwound.  
• Despite the pull‑back, both metals still posted stellar full‑year performances in 2025, with gold up about 65% and silver up roughly 149%, leaving positioning and sentiment stretched into the new year.  
• Crude oil drifted lower toward multi‑year support, with Brent sliding toward 60 USD and WTI below 57 USD as markets weighed a persistent global supply glut, ongoing OPEC+ production restraint, and uncertainty around future Venezuelan output after US military action and regime change headlines.  

Indices Market Major Changes 

• US equities ended the week slightly negative overall, as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped from record highs set the prior week, then partially recovered on the first trading day of 2026 but still finished with weekly losses of around 1% amid profit‑taking and Fed‑policy worries.  
• Volumes remained light around New Year, with annual portfolio rebalancing and position‑squaring amplifying day‑to‑day swings.  
• Japan’s equity market started 2026 with a strong surge led by defence, banks, and semiconductor equipment names, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index jumped above 26,000 on the first trading day as investors rotated back into beaten‑down China‑sensitive assets.  

Get ready for the week ahead    

Visit our market calendar to see all the key economic data, earnings, and events that could move the markets. Plan your trades before the action starts.