Key insights from 30th September to 06 October 2025

Global markets faced heightened volatility amid concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown and mixed economic data. Despite delays in key releases, sentiment stayed resilient, supported by strong earnings, leadership in tech and healthcare, and political shifts in Japan. AI momentum and record commodity prices further boosted trading activity across asset classes. 

FX Market reactions 

• US Dollar: The dollar traded choppily, easing early on government shutdown risks before steadying as concerns receded. 
• Euro & Sterling: The pound stayed weak, pressured by rising deficit data, while the euro held rangebound at elevated levels amid dovish ECB signals. 
• Yen: The Japanese yen plunged following the unexpected LDP leadership outcome, then rebounded sharply as domestic yields rose and equities rallied. 
• Commodity FX: AUD and CAD were steady, while the Mexican peso extended its winning streak on strong capital inflows. 

Commodities Market reactions 

• Gold & Silver: Both hit fresh record highs—gold neared $4,000/oz and silver rallied on safe-haven demand amid global volatility. 
• Energy: Crude oil advanced, supported by a modest OPEC+ supply rise and firm demand, though analysts cautioned about potential oversupply toward year-end. 
• Base Metals & Agriculture: Copper climbed on speculative buying and spot demand, while agricultural markets stayed mixed as soft consumption weighed on grains and coffee. 

Indices Market reactions 

• US Equities: The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq all reached record highs, fueled by big tech strength, resilient healthcare, and upbeat earnings, even as volatility edged higher and shutdown concerns lingered. 
• Europe: The STOXX 600 gained 2.8%—its best week since April—led by banks, healthcare, and miners, while the FTSE 100 touched record intraday highs on support from financials and commodities. 
• Asia-Pacific: Japan’s Nikkei jumped nearly 5% following the surprise leadership result and rising fiscal stimulus expectations, with defence and technology sectors delivering standout gains. 

Get ready for the week ahead    

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