Markets spent the week in “wait‑and‑see” mode as traders positioned ahead of the Federal Reserve’s final 2025 meeting, where another rate cut is widely expected. Steady but not yet target‑consistent US inflation (PCE around 2.8% year‑on‑year) and mixed growth data kept hopes for easier policy alive, while weak Chinese PMIs and soft export figures weighed on the global growth outlook.
FX Market Reactions
The US dollar started softer but regained strength into the weekend as bonds sold off and markets braced for a potentially less‑dovish Fed tone. The euro held a mildly firmer footing on improving sentiment, sterling stayed range‑bound as traders awaited UK labour and inflation data, and the yen strengthened after USD/JPY broke lower toward the 155 area on diverging central‑bank expectations.
Commodities Market Reactions
Gold and silver traded just below recent record highs, consolidating as rate‑cut expectations were balanced by firmer yields and some profit‑taking. Copper extended its rally, closing the week at a fresh all‑time high near USD 11,645 per tonne on tight supply and robust structural demand from EVs, renewables, and data‑centre build‑out. Oil was broadly stable in the low‑USD‑60s for WTI and mid‑USD‑60s for Brent as markets weighed OPEC+ discipline against a still‑fragile demand backdrop.
Indices Market Reactions
US indices notched a second straight weekly gain, with the S&P 500 up about 0.3%, the Nasdaq Composite up 0.9%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average about 0.5% higher as rate‑sensitive and growth stocks benefited from renewed cut hopes. Day‑to‑day, however, price action turned choppy, and major benchmarks closed lower on Monday as investors locked in profits and waited for the Fed decision. Asian equity markets were mixed, with Chinese and Hong Kong indices constrained by weak macro data, while Japan and parts of ASEAN saw modest gains ahead of a heavy central‑bank calendar.
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